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Recently, I saw someone jump to conclusions just by a few "coincidental transfers," and I can't sit still... I'm just someone who runs nodes and casually checks the blockchain, used to breaking down the paths: which entry point was used (exchange/cross-chain/contract), whether there was a roundabout mixing/aggregator in the middle, and who ultimately received the funds. Many addresses that seem to "know each other" are actually just the same router doing batch processing, or an illusion caused by wallet default address changes.
Moreover, the on-chain data tools and label systems are criticized for being outdated or even misleading, which I agree with: labels are just guesses, not proof. If you want to be serious, at least align the transaction chain, time window, gas source, and contract calls before drawing conclusions, or you'll easily wrong someone. Anyway, when I see "coincidence" now, my first reaction isn't conspiracy theory, but to trace out the path.