Just catching up on what went down with the markets and FOMC expectations back in early December. The stock indices were pretty mixed that day - S&P 500 barely moving up 0.05%, Dow Jones slightly ahead at +0.26%, but Nasdaq actually dipped -0.22%. Everyone was basically holding their breath waiting for the Fed's two-day meeting to kick off, with the market pricing in a 95% probability of that expected 25 bp rate cut. Bond yields were creeping lower too, which helped cushion some of the stock weakness.

What was interesting though was how strong the earnings backdrop looked. By that point, nearly all S&P 500 companies had reported, and about 83% beat expectations - best quarter since 2021 if I remember right. Earnings actually jumped 14.6%, way more than the 7.2% forecast. So despite the FOMC jitters, there was solid fundamental support underneath. Individual stocks were all over the place - homebuilders tanked after Toll Brothers missed on 2026 guidance, but CVS popped on raised guidance and some other names caught analyst upgrades.

The whole week was basically about watching the FOMC decision play out and seeing how the Fed would signal future moves. Lots of talk about who might replace Powell too, which added another layer of uncertainty to the mix.