Just noticed something on Kalshi - traders are pricing in about a 58% chance of the S&P 500 hitting correction territory (down 11%+) sometime this year. Interesting because if you look at the historical pattern during midterm years like 2026, the market actually tends to take a way bigger hit. We're talking median drops of around 19-21% intra-year, which would technically be bear market territory. So either the prediction markets are being too conservative, or they're pricing in a faster recovery than history suggests. The silver lining though? After midterms wrap up, there's usually a solid rebound. The six months following have historically been some of the strongest periods in the cycle, averaging 14% returns. That said, earnings growth expectations are pretty lofty at 15% - if companies don't deliver, valuations could get squeezed fast. Definitely one to keep watching as we move through 2026.