Digging into the archives and found something worth revisiting - remember the 2015 IPO wave? Only 152 companies went public that year, raising $25.2 billion total. Seems small now, but it was a big deal then. What's wild is looking back at how those companies that had their IPO in 2015 actually performed.

So here's the thing about IPOs - they're sexy when they're fresh, but statistically most don't pan out in year one. Facebook tanked 30% its first year. Most investors don't realize the odds are stacked against them from day one because institutional money already got in early.

Looking at the 10 biggest IPOs of 2015, the results were pretty brutal. First Data raised $2.6 billion - the largest - but shares dropped 10% from the IPO price. Tallgrass Energy raised $1.2 billion and is down 11%. Columbia Pipeline Partners? Down 26%. Even the ones that seemed promising like Fitbit went from $20 to losing 63% of its value as smartwatches cannibalized the wearables market.

There were some winners though. Transunion went public at $22.50 and climbed 39% - that one actually made sense because their business model had recurring revenue and stable cash flows. Blue Buffalo rose 24% as the pet food market shifted toward premium products. Ferrari stalled initially but eventually traded 12% above its $52 IPO price.

Univar was interesting - down 50% in the first six months, then bounced back hard in 2016 with acquisitions and stronger oil prices. But that's the trap right there - you had to have the stomach to hold through the pain.

The real lesson from companies that had their IPO in 2015? Only 4 out of those 10 biggest offerings showed gains, and most of those gains came from broader market recovery, not the companies executing better. Energy and infrastructure plays got hammered by commodity crashes. Tech got disrupted. The ones that survived had defensible business models.

If you're thinking about chasing IPOs, maybe wait a year. Let the lock-up periods expire, let the hype settle, and see which companies actually deliver. The 2015 class taught us that timing the IPO pop is basically gambling with worse odds.