Just been digging through some historical stock market data and noticed something interesting about how the stock market under presidents tends to follow a pretty consistent pattern. Apparently there's this whole presidential cycle thing where year three always crushes it, but the first year? Usually pretty rough.

Looking back at the actual numbers, the stock market under presidents shows some wild swings in that first year. Like Kennedy's first year saw the S&P 500 jump from 59.96 to 68.75 (about 14.66% gain), but then you've got Nixon in 1969 where it dropped 11.66%, or Carter in 1977 hitting a -12.70% loss. Obama's first year was insane though - the S&P 500 went from 805.22 to 1,138.04, that's a 41% jump. Trump's first year posted 23.73% gains, Biden's around 16.38%.

The pattern makes sense when you think about it. Most presidents spend years one and two focused on their base, which apparently doesn't move markets much. But year three? That's when they're all-in on reelection, pumping the economy hard. The stock market under presidents really does seem to respond to these political incentives.

What's wild is how much variance there is though. Some first years are brutal (Reagan -12.44%, Bush in 2001 -16%), while others are solid. Ford's was modest at 6.38%, Clinton's around 9.6%. Makes you wonder if the stock market under presidents is really about the president at all, or just broader economic conditions. Either way, the data doesn't lie - that third year is where the money's made.