Just been tracking the lithium market and it's wild how much has shifted since late 2025. Battery-grade lithium carbonate went from around US$13,400 per ton in early December up to US$26,278 by late January — that's a 95% jump in roughly two months. Spodumene's climbing too, now sitting above US$2,000 per ton for the first time since late 2023. The move caught a lot of people off guard, but when you dig into the fundamentals, it actually makes sense.

On the supply side, you've got delays at major operations, maintenance shutdowns, and now Zimbabwe throwing a curveball by suspending raw mineral exports earlier than expected back in February. Zimbabwe alone accounts for about 7% of global lithium supply, so that's adding real pressure. Meanwhile, Australian producers who mothballed operations when prices crashed below US$900 are starting to look at restarting — but that takes time. The real constraint right now seems to be upstream spodumene supply, where converter overcapacity has created a structural deficit that's giving miners more pricing power.

Demand side's actually pretty solid too. EV sales jumped 22% in 2025, with strength in China, Europe and emerging markets leading the way. Lithium demand itself is forecast to grow around 12% annually over the next decade, driven almost entirely by battery demand. Analysts are calling it a structural shift — we're moving from the depressed market of late 2023 through 2025 into something tighter. But here's the catch: lithium project development basically froze during the downturn. Feasibility studies dropped from dozens per year to fewer than 10 in 2025. Even though prices look better now, most projects need updated economics and fresh financing, which means meaningful supply response could lag by 12+ months or more.

Regionally, things are getting interesting. South America's still the long-term anchor for supply growth, Argentina and Chile improving their policy environments. Australia's likely just modest near-term growth as old projects get reassessed. China's the wild card — huge demand but domestic supply constraints, so they're aggressively hunting resources overseas for long-term security. Europe's betting on integrated extraction and processing projects. What's concerning is the market's increasingly relying on marginal, lower-grade production that can come online faster but introduces more volatility and geopolitical risk.

Bottom line: lithium prices look elevated for the near term with demand staying robust, but the supply response will be the key variable. Current margins are fat — even higher-cost operations running 50% margins — but that could change fast if supply finally catches up. Zimbabwe's export ban, Australian restarts, and Africa's potential growth all matter here. The market's constructive but expect volatility. One headline, one project delay, one policy shift and the whole outlook flips.