Just caught the latest EIA report and nat-gas got a decent pop on Thursday. Inventories dropped 132 bcf for the week, which beat the expected 124 bcf draw - always interesting when you get a bigger-than-expected inventory decline. But here's the thing: the rally got capped pretty quick because weather forecasts are calling for warmer temps across the eastern US through mid-March, so heating demand could ease off.

The natural gas inventory forecast is looking relatively balanced right now. Supplies are up 7.2% year-over-year and only 2.2% below the 5-year average, so we're in decent shape on the storage side. Meanwhile, production keeps climbing - Lower-48 dry production hit 113.1 bcf/day, and the EIA just bumped their 2026 forecast up to 109.97 bcf/day. Gas rigs are at a 2.5-year high with 134 active, so more supply is coming.

What's worth watching: European gas storage is still pretty tight at 30% full (vs 45% seasonal average), and that Ras Laffan plant closure in Qatar from the Iranian drone strike is still a wild card. That facility handles about 20% of global LNG exports, so any extended disruption could shift things. But for now, the US market seems more focused on the production ramp and warmer weather ahead. Demand was down 6.9% y/y on Thursday, which tells you heating season is winding down.