"Web3 Project Crisis Investment and Research Method"

Establishing a Systematic Cognitive Framework Before Investment Research: (Excess returns = Good companies experiencing reversible crises × Extremely low stock prices due to emotional misjudgment × Market space with enormous growth potential × Square of patience waiting time)

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Purpose of Investment Research Analysis: (Find a mission-driven project with simple, understandable business and a deep moat, operated by honest and rational management, cross-verify that the current coin price is below its intrinsic value ))

1. Introduction of the Target

1. A one-sentence statement of the project’s strategic positioning
2. Scenario-based explanation of user pain points, needs, and solutions
3. Data-driven verification of the authenticity of the solution’s demand

2. Is the Business Feasible?

1. Is the market space large?
2. Is the future growth space large?
3. Does the project have a significant market share?

3. Is the Team Capable?

1. Is the founder a focused and dedicated entrepreneurial leader?
2. Are the senior executives highly capable professionals?
3. Does the team uphold a mission, vision, and culture driven by purpose?

4. Is the Business Operational?

1. Is the product positioning sufficiently niche and precise?
2. Is the retention rate after token separation genuinely growing?
3. Are the tools sufficient to verify rigidity and validation?

5. Is the Industry Valuable?

1. Has overall cost been reduced?
2. Has industry efficiency increased?
3. Has user experience improved?

6. Is Innovation Capable?

1. Is the technological architecture highly innovative?
2. Is the business logic highly innovative?
3. Is the consensus mechanism highly innovative?

7. Is the Competitive Edge Strong?

1. Has the potential for monopoly operations?
2. Does it have leading advantages within its ecosystem?
3. Is there a religious-like consensus foundation?

8. Is the Ecosystem Prosperous?

1. Is community activity continuously increasing?
2. Is the total locked value genuinely increasing?
3. Can the actual fee income cover token inflation subsidies?

9. Is the Economic Model Sound?

1. Does the token incentive mechanism have compatibility and stimulate positive business flywheel effects?
2. Does the token have value capture ability, with ongoing buybacks, dividends, and burns?
3. Is the token unlocking and release mechanism aligned with interests and include strong staking pools?

10. Is Financial Health Good?

1. Does the DAO treasury hold sufficient stablecoins with a long-term perspective?
2. Does the project have sustainable and genuine organic income?
3. Is the ecosystem liquidity sufficient and steadily growing?

11. Are Competitors Strong?

1. Do the biggest competitors have deep moat in their business?
2. Do the biggest competitors have strong profitability?
3. Are the management teams of the biggest competitors impressive?

12. Is the Buying Opportunity Cheap?

1. Is the coin price completely misjudged by emotion, with a fully diluted market cap below 50% of intrinsic value? (Must use more than ten valuation methods applicable to this industry for cross-verification of intrinsic value)
2. Is the downside risk limited and upside potential unlimited?
3. Are effective catalysts and clear signals already visible? (Combine analysis of roadmap implementation progress and governance proposal progress)

13. Is the Selling Opportunity Appropriate?

1. Has the coin price surged significantly above its intrinsic value, with market consensus irrationally optimistic?
2. Has a paradigm shift in technology caused the certainty of sustained future growth to diminish, and is timely stop-loss necessary if investment judgment is mistaken?
3. Has the narrative of the sector shifted, causing the certainty of continued growth to diminish, and is timely stop-loss necessary if investment judgment is mistaken?

14. Is the Disruption Risk High?

1. How likely is it that the profit model will be completely disrupted within three years?
2. How likely is it that technological barriers will be fully disrupted within three years?
3. How likely is it that product advantages will be fully disrupted within three years?

15. Does the Positioning Align with the Principles of Building a Position?

1. Are you willing to become a shareholder of the company?
2. Can you sleep peacefully after buying?
3. Does holding for five years offer a tenfold increase in business value?

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Post-Investment Check Three Principles (Doing Great Things with Excellent People):

1. Leading profitable business with high growth potential,
2. Intrinsic value misjudged by emotion and currently at a very cheap buy-in price,
3. Mission, vision, values, strategic positioning, planning rhythm, target results, team capability, roadmap, etc., are aligned.
4.