4.20 Crude Oil Analysis:

The conflict between the US and Iran suddenly escalated, with the US military seizing an Iranian commercial ship, causing geopolitical risks in the Middle East to soar. Concerns over energy supply pushed oil prices higher; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, with high interest rates suppressing economic demand, and a strong dollar creating bearish pressure. The dual forces of geopolitical risk aversion and a strong dollar are playing against each other, with short-term geopolitical premiums dominating. Oil prices are supported, but demand-side pressure still exists, limiting upward potential.

Last week’s crude oil forecast for the Silk Road also successfully retraced by three points!

Oil prices surged to 89.93 before pulling back, currently oscillating around 87.42; the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with prices trading below the middle band at 87.53, facing short-term resistance; the KDJ indicator shows a golden cross upward, indicating short-term rebound momentum, but resistance at 88.5–89 is clear; after dropping to 86.42, prices quickly rebounded, with strong support at 86.5.

Short-term oscillation is leaning bullish; it is recommended to rebound to 90 and above, with targets at 85–80.