Fires in the Strait of Hormuz 🔥🔥🔥 U.S. Navy Seizes Iranian Ship, Peace Talks Suspended

While markets are closed over the weekend, the chessboard in the Middle East is being set in motion again. The “naval blockade” by U.S. President Donald Trump, Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran’s refusal of the planned second round of peace talks in Islamabad are pushing oil prices back above $100, while Bitcoin falls again to $76,000.
1. 🧐What happened in the last 72 hours?
- Operation Touska: On Sunday, the U.S. Navy stopped the Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska in the Gulf of Oman. The destroyer USS Spruance fired into the ship’s engine room, “creating a hole,” after the vessel ignored warnings, and then the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded the ship. Trump said on Truth Social, “We have full control of the ship.” The ship has been added to the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s sanctions list.
- Strait of Hormuz reclosed: On Saturday, Iran’s Navy announced via VHF radio to all ships: “Due to the U.S.’s failure to meet its commitments in negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed. No ships are allowed to pass.” A source speaking to Reuters reported that Revolutionary Guard ships fired on two commercial vessels between Keshm and Larak, and the ships returned.
- Have the talks collapsed? Trump announced that his special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would depart for Islamabad on Monday, with Vice President JD Vance leading the delegation. However, Iran’s official news agency IRNA announced that they would not participate in the second round of talks, citing “excessive demands, constant position changes, and a naval blockade that violates the ceasefire.” Iran’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs said that “no date has been set for the next round.”
- Ceasefire ends: The two-week ceasefire declared between the U.S. and Iran ended on Tuesday, 22 April. Trump said that if there is no agreement, he will “start bombing energy infrastructure and bridges in Iran.”
2. 🕵️ Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
About 20% of the world’s offshore oil, and a similar percentage of LNG, passes through this strait every year.
According to Reuters, hundreds of ships and around 20,000 sailors are currently stranded in the gulf.
Iran has alternately closed this strait since 28 February. The U.S. launched a naval blockade against Iranian ports on 13 April.
3. 🧐 Oil prices and pump prices
Prices: Brent is trading at $102,23 and WTI at $103,88 on Monday morning. Brent has risen 36% since the start of March.
What do the banks say?
Goldman Sachs: Raises the average for 2026 from $77 to $85, estimating that the Hormuz disruptions will continue.
Morgan Stanley: Forecasts $110 Brent for Q2 and $100 for Q3, saying the recovery will take months.
BofA and Standard Chartered also raised their estimates to $77,5 and $85,5 respectively.
Gasoline in the U.S.: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “I’m optimistic that we’ll get back to $3/gal between 20 June and 20 September.”
Tax cuts in Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney deferred the federal fuel tax from 20 April to 7 September. This means a cut of 10 cents per liter for gasoline and 4 cents for diesel.
4. 🤔Three risks to the global economy
Supply shock: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the flow of 17-18 million barrels of oil per day will be disrupted. This will open a market that is already tight.
Inflation reversal: Headline inflation in the U.S. and Europe has fallen in March. Oil prices above $100 could delay central bank interest-rate cut plans.
Supply chain: Container ships stranded in the gulf are once again pushing up Asia-Europe freight rates.
5. 🧐How will the crypto market react?
Bitcoin falls from $78,000 to $76,000 after the news of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again, with $762 million in liquidations in 24 hours.
On Friday, the price briefly dropped below $75,000 on hopes for peace, trying to close the week in positive territory for the third time.
Ethereum fluctuates around $2.300. Investors are testing the “safe haven” narrative: In Q1 2020, BTC rose 10% in one week amid Hormuz tensions.
6. Calendar to Watch This Week
Monday: U.S. delegation in Islamabad; Iran’s participation is not yet certain
Tuesday: Official end of the ceasefire
Tuesday-Thursday: 15% of S&P 500 companies announce earnings — energy costs become the main theme.
This crisis has brought the question “negotiations or naval forces?” back to the forefront. The TOUSKA detention shows the U.S.’s readiness to carry out its sanctions list on the ground. Iran, on the other hand, holds the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip and says, “we won’t talk until the blockade is lifted.”
The setup for the market is simple: If the strait is opened, oil prices will cool down, and risk appetite will return. If it remains closed, Brent prices above $100 will become permanent, gasoline prices won’t fall in summer, and central banks will take a wait-and-see approach.
News flows change every hour. When taking a position, look not only at messages on Truth Social, but also at shipping traffic data, the Brent futures curve, and official confirmation from Islamabad.
This is not investment advice. DYOR
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