Just noticed something interesting about how some companies are actually thriving despite all the recession talk floating around. Back in 2023, when GDP barely inched up 1.1% in Q1, most businesses were bracing for the worst. But not everyone was worried.

Take DraftKings and DexCom - both were projecting 20% plus growth that year while most of the market was tensing up. Curious what made them so confident?

DraftKings' story is pretty straightforward. Sports betting was exploding as states kept opening up new markets. The company had already hit $2.2 billion in revenue the year before with a crazy 73% jump, and they were banking on continued expansion. Even though that growth rate would inevitably cool down, they still expected to push $2.95 billion - roughly 32% growth. What's smart about their model is that sports betting doesn't require massive purchases like other consumer goods. People can bet whatever they want, whenever they want. That kind of flexibility tends to hold up even when the economy gets rocky.

The catch? DraftKings was still burning money back then. A $1.4 billion loss means this was a company betting on future profitability. So yeah, growth potential was there, but it came with real uncertainty.

Now DexCom was playing a different game entirely. They make continuous glucose monitors for diabetics, and here's the thing - diabetes isn't going away. If anything, more people are getting diagnosed every year. So demand for their tech stays steady regardless of what the broader economy is doing. Their G7 device had just launched, and early numbers looked solid. First quarter revenue hit around $742 million, up 19% organically, with full-year projections around $3.5 billion.

The big difference? DexCom was already profitable. Actually profitable. $341 million in net income on $2.9 billion revenue means they had real earnings backing up the growth story. Yeah, the valuation was steep at 150x trailing earnings, but for a company with sustainable demand and improving margins, that's a different risk profile than DraftKings.

This is the thing about recessions - they don't affect every company equally. Some industries just keep grinding regardless of the economic headlines. Healthcare needs don't disappear when times get tough, and neither do people's appetite for entertainment and betting when they have disposable income. The real question isn't whether a recession is coming. It's whether you're looking at a company with a real moat and sustainable demand.