Just been watching the coffee market and there's a lot going on right now. Arabica and robusta both hit multi-week highs on Friday, with arabica up 1.56% and robusta climbing 0.56%. The main driver seems to be supply concerns - the situation in Iran has basically shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is pushing up freight costs and insurance for anyone importing coffee. That's a real headwind for roasters and importers globally.

On the supply side, Brazil's February exports dropped hard, down 17.4% year-over-year. Colombia's also seeing production issues, with January output falling 34% year-over-year. But here's the thing - Brazil got some good rain recently in their main growing regions, which could actually help the crop outlook there. And Vietnam keeps pumping out massive volumes of robusta, which is weighing on those prices.

Looking at the ICE coffee inventories, they've been recovering from the lows we saw earlier in the year. Arabica stocks bounced back to a 5-month high, and robusta inventories climbed to a 3-month high by Tuesday. The forecasts are pretty bullish on global production though - we're looking at record crops potentially. Brazil's supposed to hit 66.2 million bags this year, and the world could see 180 million bags total. So while the supply disruptions are supporting prices now, the longer-term outlook depends a lot on whether those production numbers actually materialize. The ice coffee market is definitely caught between these competing signals right now.