Rate cuts? Rate hikes? The answer is very clear: the Federal Reserve is highly likely to “hold steady.” The latest interest-rate expectations show that there is almost no room for change in U.S. monetary policy in the short term: the probability of a 25bp rate hike in April is only 0.5%, and the probability of holding steady until June is 99.5%. Probability of a 25bp rate cut: 4.5%. Probability of holding steady: 95%. Probability of a rate hike: 0.5%. In other words, the market has essentially priced in that there won’t be any clear policy shift in the near term.