HTX DeepThink: The macro logic of the cryptocurrency market shifts from "inflation shock" to "geopolitical easing," with Bitcoin entering a stage of dual pricing based on liquidity and risk appetite

Deep Tide TechFlow News, April 20th, HTX DeepThink Columnist and HTX Research Analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) points out that the core macro variables in the crypto market are rapidly shifting from “inflation shocks” to “revisions of deflation expectations brought about by geopolitical easing.” As Israel and Lebanon reach a short-term ceasefire agreement, and the US and Iran may restart negotiations this weekend, the market is re-pricing for a “de-escalation of Middle East conflict.” The direct impact of this change is a loosening of energy market risk premiums, with rising expectations for oil prices to decline, thereby weakening the previously energy-driven inflation upward logic.

For macro assets, this signifies a key turning point: the core narrative supporting “inflation-hedging assets” like gold and Bitcoin—that energy shocks drive up inflation and force central banks to tolerate higher price levels—is being partially reversed. If substantive progress is made in Iran nuclear negotiations, or even a phased agreement (such as limiting nuclear activities, partial sanctions relief, or releasing oil supplies), oil prices could trend downward, further lowering inflation expectations over the coming months. This would directly ease upward pressure on interest rates and create a phased recovery window for risk assets.

However, caution is warranted as the current “peace expectations” remain highly uncertain. The terms proposed by Trump (including nuclear material handling, opening the Strait of Hormuz, or even “free oil”) have not been officially confirmed by Iran, and Gulf states and Europe generally believe that reaching an agreement still requires several months. This means the market is more akin to trading “optimistic expectations” rather than actual fundamental changes. Should negotiations falter or conflicts escalate again, energy prices and inflation expectations could rebound swiftly, causing secondary volatility.

Within this framework, the short-term pricing logic of the crypto market will become more complex. On one hand, the expectation of falling inflation favors lower interest rates and improved liquidity conditions, supporting Bitcoin; on the other hand, if inflation expectations decline rapidly, it could weaken Bitcoin’s marginal appeal as an “inflation hedge.” This suggests Bitcoin is more likely to enter a phase of “macro hedge attribute internal switching,” shifting from a single inflation-hedging logic to a dual pricing driven by both liquidity and risk appetite.

From a trading strategy perspective, it is currently not advisable to heavily bet on a single macro direction. The better approach is to maintain core Bitcoin positions while paying attention to volatility opportunities driven by events. If Middle East tensions continue to ease, oil prices fall, and interest rates decline, consider participating in risk asset rebounds; conversely, if negotiations break down or conflicts escalate, be alert to a rapid market pullback triggered by rebounds in energy and inflation expectations. Overall, the crypto market is in a critical transitional period where “geopolitical variables dominate short-term volatility, and macro liquidity determines medium-term trends.”

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.