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Just caught something interesting in the market this week that doesn't get talked about very often. The stock market triggered what analysts call a Breakaway Momentum signal - and this is legitimately rare.
Here's what happened. There's this technical indicator that measures the ratio of advancing stocks versus declining stocks on the NYSE over a 10-day period. When that ratio crosses above 1.97, it signals what's known as breakaway momentum - basically the market showing extremely strong upside momentum that typically marks the beginning of major rallies.
The crazy part? This just happened for only the 25th time in the last 75 years. And I'm not exaggerating when I say this is significant. Every single time this breakaway momentum signal has triggered - all 24 previous times - stocks were higher six to 12 months later. Not most of the time. Every time. The average returns over the following 12 months came in around 20%.
Think about that for a second. You're looking at a technical pattern with perfect historical accuracy going back three quarters of a century. The last time we saw this kind of breakaway momentum was back in June 2020 when the market was bouncing out of the COVID crash. Now it's showing up again.
What makes this moment different is the backdrop. Inflation's cooling, the Fed might be done hiking rates, the economy's holding up better than expected, and geopolitical tensions are easing. You've got all these tailwinds lining up right as this rare momentum indicator flashes.
Looking at it objectively, if you believe breakaway momentum has predictive power - and the data suggests you should - then the early innings of a meaningful bull market could be starting right now. The stocks that move first in these setups tend to be the ones that move the hardest.
Worth paying attention to if you're thinking about positioning for the next leg up.