#Gate13周年现场直击 The Strait Re-Blockade Shockwave, War Premium Incoming: Gold, Silver, Energy, Stocks—Who Rises First, Who Crashes First?

Iran announced on April 18th that it has resumed full control over the Strait of Hormuz, stating it will maintain control until the end of the war. The Revolutionary Guard boats forced back and fired upon an Indian oil tanker, causing a sudden "throat blockage" in the global energy artery. Combining the latest statements, market sentiment, and historical patterns, in the next 3–5 days, gold, silver, energy, and the stock market will show short-term pulse-like upward movements and structural divergence. The core logic is risk aversion heating up + inflation expectations rebounding + policy expectations fluctuating.

1. Gold: High-level oscillation leaning strong, possibly consolidating after short-term surge
Core driver: Geopolitical conflict escalation boosts safe-haven demand, oil price rebound raises inflation expectations, the US dollar index weakens short-term, reducing holding costs.
Market projection:
Next 48 hours: London gold continues to rise sharply, targeting the range of $4,850–4,900 per ounce (up about 0.5%–1.5% from $4,828 early on April 19th), with a high probability of reaching a new historical high.
3–5 days: If the situation does not further escalate, profit-taking combined with Fed policy expectation fluctuations may cause gold prices to retreat to the $4,800–4,850 range, maintaining high-level oscillation overall. Key variables: whether substantive progress occurs in US-Iran negotiations; whether the 10-year US Treasury yield rises rapidly.

2. Silver: More elastic than gold, short-term pulse rise followed by oscillation
Core driver: Silver combines precious metal safe-haven and industrial attributes. Geopolitical risks boost safe-haven demand, while energy price rebounds drive industrial demand expectations.
Market projection:
Next 48 hours: London silver follows gold’s strong rise, targeting $82–85 per ounce (up about 1.5%–5% from $80.77 early on April 19th), with significantly greater elasticity than gold.
3–5 days: As sentiment marginally eases, silver may fall back to the $80–82 range with larger volatility than gold. Risk warning: if global recession expectations strengthen or industrial demand concerns intensify, silver price gains may be suppressed.

3. Crude Oil: Short-term pulse surge followed by high-level oscillation, war premium unlikely to sustain
Core driver: The sharp decline in Strait of Hormuz navigation efficiency raises global shipping and oil supply risks, with market pricing in "war premium."
Market projection:
Next 48 hours: Brent crude surges to $105–110 per barrel, WTI crude to $100–105 per barrel, with daily gains possibly reaching 8%–12%.
3–5 days: Potential OPEC+ production increase signals, US strategic reserve releases, and rising demand concerns may push oil prices back to $95–102, gradually digesting the war premium. Key scenarios: if Iran fully blocks the strait, prices may break through $110; if negotiations restart, prices could quickly fall below $90.

4. Global stock markets: Opening lower with increased structural divergence
Core driver: Geopolitical risks boost risk premiums, energy price rebounds lift inflation and interest rate expectations, capital rotates from growth stocks to safe-haven sectors.
Market projection:
Asia-Pacific markets (including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks): April 20th opening generally down 0.3%–1%, then oscillating and recovering driven by energy, gold, and military sectors, with increased overall volatility. US stocks: impacted by high-valuation growth stocks (tech, consumer), opening slightly pressured, but energy and military sectors may offset declines, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq maintaining range-bound oscillation.
Sector divergence: Beneficial sectors include oil & gas exploration, petrochemicals, gold mining, military, coal, directly benefiting from oil prices and safe-haven demand. Under pressure: aviation, shipping, chemicals, downstream manufacturing, high-valuation growth stocks (due to rising energy costs squeezing profits). Key variables: whether new progress occurs in US-Iran negotiations; whether global central banks signal policy stabilization.

5. Core logic and risk warning
Short-term sentiment dominates, medium-term returns to fundamentals:
In the next 3–5 days, market pricing will be driven mainly by geopolitical sentiment; if tensions ease, asset prices will quickly revert to inflation, policy, and supply-demand fundamentals.
Gold outperforms silver, crude oil exhibits the largest volatility: Gold’s safe-haven attribute is more pure and stable in the short term; silver is more elastic but volatile; oil is most affected by strait navigation and negotiations, with the highest price swings.
Stock market opportunities are more structural than overall: indices are unlikely to see a large unilateral decline, but sector divergence is prominent, focusing on energy, gold, military, and other main themes.
Risk warning: full escalation of conflict, Iran’s complete blockade of the strait, or hawkish signals from the Fed could trigger sharp asset price adjustments.

Iran’s re-control of the Strait of Hormuz marks a significant escalation in geopolitical game, and in the next 3–5 days, global assets will show a pattern of gold and silver being relatively strong, crude oil surging in pulses, and stock markets diverging structurally. Investors should closely monitor negotiation progress and strait navigation status, with short-term trading driven by sentiment and medium-term allocation based on fundamentals.