On April 20th, spot gold opened with a gap lower in the morning session, currently trading around $4,770 per ounce, down approximately 1.3%. Last Friday night, gold prices surged to near $4,890, then profit-taking emerged, closing at $4,832. Over the weekend, Middle East tensions fluctuated and the dollar strengthened, pushing gold prices sharply lower at the open.

The current gold price has broken below the daily MA10 (around $4,815), with the 1-hour MACD showing increasing green bars and a double-line death cross pointing downward, indicating strong short-term bearish momentum. However, the $4,770 level below is a recent support zone at the lower boundary of the oscillation range; if it holds, a rebound may be possible. Resistance above is at the $4,810-$4,815 area; breaking through this level could ease the short-term downward pressure. The key support below is at the $4,700 round number, which is also the weekly MA5; if lost, further testing of the previous lows may occur.

Dollar and interest rates: The dollar index rebounded to 98.42 on the weekly chart, directly suppressing gold priced in USD. U.S. inflation data remains volatile, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have significantly cooled. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding gold.

Geopolitical factors: Weekend saw fluctuations in US-Iran tensions, with Iran explicitly refusing to participate in the second round of negotiations. The US fired on Iranian commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz was reopened. Although risk aversion has temporarily eased, deep-seated conflicts remain, with the ceasefire expiring on April 22nd being a key point.

Global gold ETFs continued net inflows for the seventh consecutive quarter, but in March alone, net outflows reached $12 billion, a record high, offset by large-scale sell-offs in North America and continued net inflows in Asia. In the short term, some safe-haven funds that had previously gained profits are closing positions, increasing gold price volatility.

Several institutions maintain a medium- to long-term bullish outlook: UBS expects the average gold price to reach $5,000 by 2026; Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential surge to $5,400 before the end of the year; and Zions Bank sticks to a year-end target of $6,000. In the short term, after a high-level pullback, gold is entering a correction phase. Focus should be on the developments in US-Iran tensions and changes in the dollar index. Whether the support zone at $4,770-$4,700 can hold will determine the depth and duration of this correction. #Gate13周年现场直击