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Just been thinking about that old phrase 'the pig through the python' — and honestly, it perfectly describes what we're watching play out in markets right now. Back in early March, the Fed started aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation, and now we're seeing the real digestive process. That 'pig' is inflation with its tentacles everywhere, and the 'python' is our domestic economy slowly working through it all.
Today was another rough session. The major indices all closed in the red after a solid three-day rebound. The Dow dropped 0.30% despite hitting +399 at its peak, S&P 500 fell 0.80%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.61%. The Russell 2000 got hit even harder at -1.19%. What's striking is how the bond market is pricing all this — the 2-year yield jumped to 4.6% (up half a point in just a month), and the 10-year hit 4.235%. These moves basically tell us where traders think the Fed is headed with more hikes still to come.
The real tell is in the housing data. September Existing Home Sales came in at 4.71 million — the lowest monthly figure since mid-2020, and before that you'd have to go back nearly a decade. January started strong at 6.5 million as buyers rushed ahead of expected rate hikes, but it's been downhill ever since. This is the 'pig through the python' in action: higher rates are literally choking off one of the economy's biggest engines.
Corporate earnings are starting to show the global pain too. IBM reported losing roughly $1 billion in Q3 revenue just from the strengthening dollar overseas. The Japanese yen has collapsed against the dollar in ways we haven't seen since 1990. So while everyone talks about domestic inflation, the 'pig through the python' dynamic has serious ripple effects worldwide.
Snap's earnings miss after the bell was brutal — stock dropped over 20% in late trading. They actually beat on earnings per share at $0.08 versus expected -$0.01, and revenue came in at $1.13 billion as expected. Daily Active Users hit 363 million, beating the 358 million forecast. But here's the problem: Average Revenue per User came in at $3.11, missing by a dime, and management guided for flat full-year revenue. This company used to command 40x sales multiples; now it's 4x with no growth on the horizon. That's what happens when the 'pig through the python' squeezes consumer spending.
The broader point: we're in the middle of this painful economic digestion where inflation forces the Fed to keep rates elevated, which ripples through housing, corporate earnings, currency markets, and consumer behavior. It's not a quick process — the python's GI tract works slowly.