So I called it back in early 2025 when everyone was sleeping on Fed cuts. Most people thought we'd get maybe one 25bp trim all year. I was out here saying the Fed would actually be aggressive, and sure enough, they delivered 75bp total. Not exactly my predicted 100bp, but close enough when the reasoning was spot-on.

Now we're already four months into 2026 and I'm noticing something interesting about how the market is still underestimating what's coming next. The median expectation right now is for about 50bp more in cuts - basically two meetings. But I think that's way too conservative again.

Here's what I'm seeing: Economic uncertainty is real, the job market is showing cracks, and there's this whole leadership transition happening at the Fed with Powell's term winding down. The conditions are there for something bigger.

I'm making three specific calls for 2026:

First, the Fed is going to cut rates four times, not two. Right now the market is only pricing in an 11% chance of that happening, which feels way too low given what's actually going on. The interest rate projections for 2025 were too timid, and we're repeating the same mistake now.

Second, long-term rates are about to move way more than people think. The 10-year yield is sitting around 4.19% - which is actually higher than it was mid-2024 when rates were supposed to be higher. That doesn't make sense and it will correct. I'm calling for it to drop below 3.5% by year-end, something we haven't seen since early 2023.

Third, mortgage rates finally get some real relief. Fannie Mae was talking 5.9% and others were predicting we'd be stuck around 6.4%. I think we actually see 30-year mortgages drop to 5.5% by the end of the year. That's meaningful movement.

Look, I'm not pretending I have a crystal ball. But when you look at the actual economic data and the pressures building up, a lower-rate environment in 2026 makes way more sense than what the consensus is pricing in. The interest rate projections for 2025 taught us something - don't underestimate the Fed when conditions shift.