On the daily chart, BTC quickly retreated from a high near 78,300 last week and is currently seeking support around the 74,000 level. In terms of candlestick patterns, the price has consecutively formed long upper shadow bearish candles for several days, indicating heavy selling pressure above the 78,000 region. Currently, the price has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (around 75,800) and is moving toward the lower band, with short-term bearish momentum dominating.

From a larger timeframe perspective, the market is still in a broad weekly oscillation, with the core fluctuation range roughly between 70,000 and 78,000. The 4-hour MACD has already formed a death cross, with the green bars continuously expanding, indicating short-term downward pressure; however, the daily MACD fast and slow lines remain close together, suggesting the medium-term trend direction is still unclear.

RSI(14) indicator: about 52 (neutral) on the daily, about 54 (neutral leaning bullish) on the 4-hour, with insufficient momentum
MACD indicator: 4-hour death cross confirmed (379.07), green bars continue to grow; daily MACD lines remain close, with red bars shrinking
BOLL indicator: upper and lower bands at 78,100/74,100, with the price below the middle band, indicating a Bollinger Band squeeze and a short-term directional choice

The bearish MACD death cross signal diverges from the neutral RSI, indicating that short-term downward pressure is still being released.

Strong resistance: 77,800-78,320, last week’s high + upper Bollinger Band + previous dense accumulation zone
Secondary resistance: 75,500-75,800, middle Bollinger Band + intraday short-term resistance
Key support: 74,000, round number + technical defense line
Strong support: 73,500-73,900, lower Bollinger Band + 4-hour support resonance
Ultimate defense: 72,000, medium-term trend lifeline

If the price falls below 73,900, caution is needed for further decline toward 72,000; if volume increases and the price stabilizes above 75,800, there is potential for an upward test of the 78,000 resistance zone.

Regarding ETH, the current quote is around 2,290, with a 24-hour decline of 3%, a larger drop than BTC, indicating that altcoins are generally weaker in the market. On the daily chart, ETH has begun a correction from the high of 2,463, breaking below the 4-hour EMA15 and EMA30 lines, with short-term bearish momentum clearly evident.

However, from a medium-term structure, ETH recently re-claimed the 100-day simple moving average (which had been a dynamic resistance since November 2025), and the resistance zone that repeatedly suppressed price in Q1 2026 has now turned into support, forming an ascending triangle pattern that has broken above the triangle’s upper boundary. As long as ETH holds above $2,300, the next upward move can be initiated. But currently, the price has fallen below 2,300, making this key support level a critical short-term focus.

RSI indicator: about 50.72 on the 4-hour (neutral), with a high-level reversal downward on the 1-hour
MACD indicator: 4-hour death cross confirmed, green bars continue to expand; 1-hour shows volume contraction above zero line, with the fast and slow lines forming a golden cross and then converging again
BOLL indicator: 4-hour middle and upper bands are parallel, lower band shows downward expansion trend, upper Bollinger Band resistance at 2,435, support at 2,294

Multiple timeframe indicators show a bearish resonance, but the MACD green bars below zero suggest a weakening downward momentum; whether the decline energy is exhausted depends on subsequent volume changes.

Strong resistance: 2,400, a psychological level with three failed bullish attempts
Secondary resistance: 2,300-2,370, 100-day SMA + horizontal resistance zone, the current first rebound resistance zone
Key support: 2,260-2,294, Bollinger lower band + EMA50 support resonance
Strong support: 2,220-2,230, ascending trend channel lower boundary + previous dense trading zone
Ultimate defense: 2,150-2,180, trend channel lower boundary + EMA200 support

If the price breaks below 2,220 (trend channel lower boundary), the bullish structure risks being broken; if the price can stabilize above 2,300 and rebound with volume, it may test the 2,400 resistance zone again.