From the current four-hour wave structure, Bitcoin’s prior round of rebound and correction has completely played out. Earlier, a clear Yb-wave rebound structure formed; within it, the multiple internal sub-waves W-X-Y-Z completed, building the top. Around the high of 78300, the line has formed a stage-wise strong-resistance top, and the rally momentum of the longs has completely exhausted.

The market has now officially entered a large-scale correction cycle, beginning the Yc-wave main decline downward leg. After the price retreated from the high under pressure, the Bollinger Bands continued to open downward, and the moving averages show a bearish alignment with clear bearish divergence spreading. The bearish volume has visibly expanded on the board, the MACD momentum continues to weaken, and the overall downtrend structure has been fully established.

This round of decline is a trend-based pullback and repair. Downside space is opened up: first support to watch is the lower boundary region of the downward channel, and the second tier—key support in the low area—has ample space. In the short term, any rebound on the board is only consolidation and repair while the selloff is underway; it does not have the conditions for a reversal upward.

Overall, keep to a trend-following approach. Throughout, focus on laying short positions with high-level pressure as the main setup. Rebounds are the opportunity to enter; don’t blindly try to catch the bottom, don’t hold positions against the trend, and strictly follow the wave trend to run the trade.#BTH