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Just been digging into some of Berkshire's recent moves, and there's actually some interesting stuff happening in the portfolio right now. With Warren Buffett stepping back from the CEO role, people assume the stock-picking days are over, but honestly his influence is still everywhere in what Berkshire holds.
So here's what caught my attention. American Express has taken a pretty hard hit lately - down almost 20% from its December peak. Everyone's panicking about the debt situation. U.S. household debt is sitting at a record $18.8 trillion with delinquencies hitting near-decade highs around 4.8%. On paper, that should crush a lender like Amex. But here's the thing - Amex actually serves a different customer base than most people realize. Their cardholders tend to be wealthier, and luxury spending was up 15% year over year in Q4, way outpacing their overall 8% growth. The pullback might actually be a decent entry point if you believe in the company's positioning.
Then there's Constellation Brands, which hasn't exactly been a home run since Berkshire got in late last year. Corona and Modelo aren't setting the world on fire right now - alcohol consumption in the U.S. hit a multidecade low at 54% according to Gallup. But and this is important - the booze business is cyclical. When consumers feel better about their finances, demand comes roaring back. Plus, management is actually cleaning house, divesting lower-margin wine brands that were dragging things down. New CEO Nicholas Fink could bring fresh energy here.
Now, the one I'd actually skip? DaVita. This is where Warren's patience hasn't really paid off. The dialysis company looked good back in 2011 when Berkshire first invested, but the healthcare reimbursement environment has gotten brutal. Revenue is barely growing at 5% year over year, but net income is down 17%. That's the real story. What's telling is that Berkshire itself started quietly exiting this position early last year, and the new CEO is just continuing that exit strategy. Sometimes even the best investors hold onto positions longer than they should.
The broader picture? Healthcare is just tough right now, and there's no relief in sight. But consumer staples like beer and financial services with the right customer mix still have legs. Worth thinking about where your own portfolio sits in this environment.