So I called the interest rate prediction for 2025 and actually got it right. At the start of last year, everyone was talking about maybe one 25-basis-point cut from the Fed for the whole year. I went on record saying they'd be way more aggressive than that. Turns out the Fed cut rates three times for a total of 75 basis points. Not exact, but close enough - and definitely proved the consensus was way too conservative.

Now we're a few months into 2026 and I'm seeing the same pattern repeating. The market is pricing in maybe 50 basis points of cuts this year, which would be like two meetings. That feels too cautious to me again.

Here's what I'm actually expecting for 2026:

First - the Fed will cut four times, not two. Right now the market is only giving that a 11% probability, but I think the economic signals point to more cuts coming. Job market pressure is real, and there's the whole leadership transition with Powell stepping down. The data just doesn't support holding rates this high.

Second - the 10-year Treasury yield is going to drop hard. It's sitting around 4.19% right now, which is wild because it's actually higher than it was in mid-2024 when the Fed funds rate was way higher. That disconnect makes no sense. I'm calling for it to fall below 3.5% by year-end. We haven't seen that since early 2023.

Third - mortgage rates are finally going to get real relief. Most predictions have them basically flatlined around 6% or so. I think we'll actually see them drop to 5.5% by the end of the year. That's meaningful movement for anyone looking at real estate.

Look, I'm not pretending I have a crystal ball. But my read on interest rate prediction trends suggests we're heading into a significantly lower-rate environment than most experts are currently forecasting. The pieces just seem to be moving that way.