There are 723 days until the halving. From the perspective of the "first 500 days," it's indeed time to slowly wait for the trend to shift; don't rush to go all-in and buy the dip.

Continuous Settlement Market Play

This rebound dropped from around 78,000 near the high point to around 74,000

The dense short-term liquidity below was liquidated in the short term, and long orders at 75,200/74,800/74,400, among others, were collectively liquidated last night.

Right now, there’s quite a lot of short liquidity only above 76,000-78,000. The daily level around 78,000 is a relatively strong resistance zone. Generally, resistance like this will not be broken through all at once unless the market fundamentals are driving it, so after a small pullback.

There isn’t any good news on the news front either. On one side, Trump is frantically putting out positive signals to the market, but not long after that, Iran will come out to deny it, and the market’s sensitivity to the US-Iran war is gradually decreasing.

The real thing that caused this drop is still what Trump said last night: that he would send Vance to Islamabad for a second round of talks with Iran. As soon as that happened, Iran jumped out to deny it, denying that any talks would be held in Islamabad, and also suspecting that it was being used as cover for a surprise attack.

Since they couldn’t agree and the ceasefire period ends immediately on Tuesday, it means they’re going to start fighting again.

On top of that, the primary market has seen two hacking incidents in just one month, with losses exceeding $500 million. If the secondary market is pessimistic, then the primary market is in despair—everything looks dead silent going forward.

The news is a complete mess, and both the overall market and altcoins are also using the ceasefire negotiation period to go out and stretch their legs.

So the outlook for the subsequent market is not very optimistic; personally, I’m leaning bearish. It’s always correct to short on rallies in a bear market.

Finally, there are 723 days until Bitcoin’s halving. Personally, I suggest shifting from bearish inertia to bullish inertia starting from 500 days before the halving. History won’t repeat exactly, but it’s pretty much the same.

If within the next 200+ days there’s still another drop—BTC starting with 5, or a wick-spike down starting with 4—then this bear market is basically at its end.

If not, then this bear market is again different from the past, proving that the blockchain is moving toward stability.

Because in previous bear markets, the very last drop would always involve some big player being sacrificed.