4.20 Yellow Fish White Dew Morning Market Analysis and Strategy

U.S. market gold is expected to once again challenge above 4800. Once it successfully stabilizes, it is highly likely to move towards the high of 4900. The subsequent market trend fully confirms this judgment, with U.S. market gold experiencing a strong unilateral rally, reaching a high near 4890, and the trend closely matches expectations. This movement also reflects the current market's core characteristics: overall investor sentiment is cautious, main capital inflows and outflows are frequent, and herd-following behavior is prominent. Although the daily chart shows a pattern of oscillating rebound and rally, retail investors must stay alert and guard against the risk of a sharp decline within a single day, and avoid blindly chasing highs to enter the market.

From a macro perspective, although recent tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing and market risk aversion is gradually diminishing, the core disagreements between the U.S. and Iran have not truly been resolved. The so-called peace negotiations are only superficial, and whether related agreements can be implemented remains highly uncertain, with the possibility of breaches not ruled out. The geopolitical tug-of-war will continue for some time. Considering the current market rhythm, it is expected that around May, the geopolitical situation will gradually clarify, and the gold market will also face a clear directional choice, breaking the current oscillating pattern.

From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour chart, the MACD indicator's bullish momentum remains insufficient, and the KDJ indicator has already formed a death cross and is diverging downward. The probability of short-term main capital profit-taking has increased significantly. Unless there is a non-fundamental, non-technical-driven bullish trap, short-term correction pressure will intensify. Intraday trading should closely monitor the movements of main capital, accurately grasping the market rhythm.

Today’s intraday focus on two key levels:
First, whether the 4800 level can effectively stabilize;
Second, whether the 4700 support level will be broken. If 4700 is effectively broken, the gold price could drop more than 300 points in a single day, raising the risk of a "Black Monday" scenario; if the 4800 level can hold, gold will maintain a range-bound oscillation, with opportunities to rally again.

Morning trading reference:
Go long within the 4700-4720 range, targeting 4785-4820.