April 20 Gold Morning Review

From the fundamental market perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations continue to pressure gold prices. CME data shows that the probability of the Fed holding steady in April approaches 99.5%, with only a 4.5% chance of a rate cut in June. The US dollar and Treasury yields remain high, directly suppressing gold's movement.
On the geopolitical front, a sudden development occurred as the US military intercepted an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Iran immediately signaled a retaliatory response, and the related ceasefire agreement faced the risk of breaking on April 22. Risk aversion sentiment increased, providing short-term support for gold prices.
Technically, gold is in a historically high range, with daily RSI overbought and MACD showing divergence signals. Coupled with long positions at high levels, profit-taking is causing short-term pullback pressure. Today, focus on the developments in US-Iran geopolitical tensions and the market reaction after domestic LPR stabilization.
The medium-term bullish trend for gold remains intact. In the short term, it is in a phase of high-level correction, with moving averages still maintaining a bullish arrangement. The $4,700 level remains the key support in the medium term.
Key intra-day levels
Support: 4740-4750 (first), 4700-4710 (strong support)
Resistance: 4780-4800 (first), 4830-4850 (strong resistance)
Trading reference
If the price retraces to stabilize around 4700-4710, consider gradually adding long positions, targeting 4780-4800#黄金