4.20 Morning Pancake

Escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict: The temporary ceasefire expires on April 22, with the risk of negotiations breaking down surging; expectations of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz heat up, and elevated oil prices lift U.S. inflation.
Fed hawkish pressure: Powell clearly says, "Inflation is not stable—no rate cuts; no rate hikes ruled out." The expectation for rate cuts within the year is left with only 1 move, pushed back to after September; the U.S. Dollar Index rebounds strongly, global liquidity tightens, and risk assets face collective pressure.
Capital flow reversal: Safe-haven funds pour into the U.S. dollar/U.S. Treasuries; funds in the crypto market flow out sharply, and the stampede in long positions further intensifies the downside.

Daily level: It has already fallen below the key support of 75,000, with the 5/10/20-day moving averages in a bearish alignment; MACD shows a downward death cross, green bars expand on increased volume, and bearish momentum strengthens; the candlestick chart shows consecutive declines, confirming the downward trend.
4-hour level: The rebound lacks strength, continuing to be weighed down below the moving-average cluster; the downward channel opens, RSI is dulled at low levels with no rebound signals; volume shrinks—rebound with no volume, while selling volume rises.
Key price levels - Resistance: 74,700–75,300 (strong resistance zone, rebound limit)
Support: 73,000 → 72,500 → 70,000 (key psychological and high-transaction-density area)

Suggestion
74700–75300 hits resistance, target: 73000- 72500$BTC ‌