Shouchuang Futures: Inventory Continues to Accumulate, Caustic Soda Futures Prices Remain Weak with Volatile Fluctuations

Inventory continues to accumulate, and caustic soda futures prices fluctuate weakly.

In the spot market, the price of Shandong 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is 737 yuan/ton, stable versus the previous trading day.

After the main downstream buyers’ purchase prices were raised further by 30, most companies’ actual order prices were kept stable, while some companies raised their prices.

On the supply side, Tianjin Legin Bohai Chemical’s chlor-alkali capacity of 290,000 tons was completely shut down for inspection on March 28, with the startup time to be confirmed.

With chlor-alkali profits rising, chlor-alkali companies’ operating rates are trending upward, and supply has increased.

This week, for the nationwide fixed-liquid caustic soda sample enterprises of 200,000 tons and above, plant-warehouse inventories are 53.03 million tons ( wet tons ), up 0.94 percentage points month-on-month and up 8.44 percentage points year-on-year.

On the demand side, domestic alumina operating rates recover relatively slowly, while the progress of newly added alumina projects in Guangxi is accelerating.

In the early stage, highly alkaline caustic soda prices surged too high; downstream buyers are relatively resistant to high-priced raw materials. Except for export orders, shipment of other social orders is generally average.

View: Geopolitical conditions are repeatedly fluctuating, and the chemical sector’s performance is diverging.

With expectations of higher caustic soda operating rates increasing, downstream buyers remain resistant to high-priced raw materials. Caustic soda inventory continues to build up; it is expected that in the short term caustic soda futures prices will fluctuate weakly. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, changes in domestic and overseas units, and the progress of new downstream capacity additions.