Lately I’ve been watching the options order book again, and the more I look, the more I feel this way: time value—plainly speaking—is just slowly leaking out of the buyer’s pocket and into the seller’s. If you’re the buyer and the direction doesn’t play out, “time” just forces you to take the hit, deducting points for you. If you’re the seller, a lot of the time it’s not that you’re more precise—it's that you’re betting the market won’t be dramatic for most of the time. If you drag it out a bit longer, you end up winning.

But don’t romanticize the seller too much either. When a big wave of volatility really hits—especially that kind where one needle pierces through several levels—the seller doesn’t stay in “collecting rent every day” anymore. They go from that to “suddenly having their house torn down.” So what I care about more now is: am I buying volatility or am I selling volatility? Don’t just talk about being bullish—place your orders using a seller’s logic.

By the way, these past couple of days, around the upgrade/maintenance of the mainstream public chains, the group has been guessing whether projects will migrate… but when I look at order flow, it feels more straightforward: some people move their positions in advance, while others place a bet on the volatility that follows when the news lands. Anyway, I don’t really like going all-in at these kinds of moments; if I can understand, I’ll do it. If I can’t understand, I do less. Forget it—I won’t talk about it for now, lest my hands get itchy.