These days, I see people using "the supply of stablecoins has increased again" to infer "off-exchange ETF funds are coming in," and I just can't help but feel a bit uneasy... Correlation really doesn't equal causation. An increase in stablecoins could mean waiting for the right opportunity, or it could be for arbitrage/market making turnover, or even just to avoid volatility and pause for a bit. Honestly, "money just lying on the chain" doesn't mean a surge is imminent.

I personally pay more attention to sentiment when I watch the market: when NFT floor prices drop sharply or royalties decrease, everyone immediately shifts from "faith" to "calculations." During such times, trying to fit a grand narrative is quite easy to be led astray. AI agent automated trading has also been very popular lately, but while claiming "full automation for profit," people often ignore authorization and contract interactions. When something goes wrong, they start blaming the platform... Anyway, I now prefer to slow down, double-check a few steps, and have fewer illusions.