Honestly, these days I’ve seen people treat on-chain large transfers and exchange hot and cold wallets moving as "smart money signals," and I feel half inclined to jump in and half to laugh... I’m not sure either, but many so-called "coincidental transfers" actually have pretty ordinary routes when broken down: a segment from an exchange's hot wallet, passing through an intermediary address, then going into a cold wallet/ custody—mostly internal rebalancing; or first transferred to a new address and then fragmented and distributed, like risk control isolation, not necessarily that someone knew something in advance. Anyway, now when I see large amounts, I first ask myself: what’s this address’s history for? Are there any old counterparties? Is it the same label just changing disguises? After asking, I click confirm—at least I understand what I’m losing if I lose.