Shouchuang Futures: Supply and demand accumulate inventory, soda ash futures prices remain low

On the supply side, Henan Junhua is expected to resume production, while Inner Mongolia Boyuan Silver Root Chemical’s output has not yet recovered. This week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 81.59%, down 0.28% from the previous week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8861 million tons, an increase of 21.3k tons from Monday, a growth of 1.14%. Soda ash equipment has fewer maintenance shutdowns, operating at a high level, with factories slightly accumulating stock.

On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly on an as-needed basis, with increased wait-and-see sentiment. Downstream consumption remains stable or slightly declining, with significant pressure on finished products, and some industries have halted or reduced production lines, with float glass daily melting volume dropping to 143.1k tons. This week, three float glass lines are expected to undergo cold repairs, with a total capacity of 1,900 tons, and weekly output is expected to be 1.0092 million tons. One 800 MW photovoltaic line is releasing water, with an estimated operational capacity of 608.8k tons. As soda ash equipment recovers, supply tends to increase, but the downstream glass industry is still in the clearing stage, and daily melting volume may continue to decline, with soda ash remaining in a surplus pattern. It is expected that short-term soda ash futures prices will stay low, with attention to changes in energy prices, equipment maintenance, and downstream inventory replenishment pace. (First Capital Futures)