Recently, everyone has started paying attention to stablecoin supply and ETF net inflows, feeling that as long as the numbers change, they can explain all the rises and falls... But honestly, correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. An increase in stablecoins might be for backup funds, or it could just be moving to on-chain financial products. ETF inflows don't necessarily mean immediate buying of spot assets; those off-chain thoughts are more complicated than K-line charts.

And that unlock schedule—I've been hearing about it so often lately that I almost have it memorized. Of course, there's anxiety about selling pressure, but don't take "unlock = certain crash" as a rule. Emotional overextension in advance is quite common too.

As for what I mean by "long-term," it's probably about a quarter or so, enough to withstand a few narrative shifts and emotional cycles. When the market turns green, I want to fold my umbrella... Anyway, I first look at whether on-chain stablecoin flows are turning around before deciding whether to open the umbrella again.