In the past, whenever the supply of stablecoins increased a little, social media would start saying "money is flowing in, it's about to take off"; now, whenever there's news of ETF subscriptions/redemptions, people automatically imagine a "flood of off-exchange trading." Frankly, the correlation is pretty easy to fool the mind: an increase in supply might just be a shell game, market maker stocking up, or moving assets on-chain; ETF inflows could also be hedging trades that buy and sell spot holdings behind the scenes—just because there's activity doesn't mean there's new demand.

What I care more about is: are we collectively getting carried away—funding rates soaring, trending searches exploding, on-chain activity not keeping up? That's probably just acting. By the way, the NFT royalty mudslinging is the same—used to be called "support for creators" as a righteous cause, now as soon as secondary liquidity is mentioned, everyone starts bickering... Emotions run ahead, the ledger follows later. Anyway, I don't predict prices; I just avoid emotional trades.