Recently, I’ve been seeing a lot more discussion about whether stablecoins will lose their peg—put simply, in many cases it’s not that there isn’t enough in the assets. It’s that everyone has already queued up a run in their minds: once people start doubting the reserves and the audits aren’t transparent enough, those few big transfers on-chain feel like lighting a fire—so the more you watch, the more panicked you get.

Even when I’m lurking around NFT old graves, I can still feel this kind of emotion spreading. When the floor price softens, everyone runs first; ironically, the ones that are the hardest are the projects whose position distributions are very “lazy”… But stablecoins are different. They basically survive on trust—transparency is their oxygen.

Meanwhile, over on Layer2, people are constantly comparing TPS, fees, and subsidies, and the arguments are pretty lively. But what I care about more is this: once the market goes haywire, will the deposit and withdrawal channels get jammed? And can stablecoin liquidity handle it?

As for “long-term,” I define it in a pretty straightforward way: can you make it through a round of monthly panic, then do a review after the next quarter and still be willing to hold and/or keep observing? That’s about what I consider “long-term.” Anyway, I don’t pretend to be an eternalist myself.