Wu's weekly macro indicators and analysis: U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiration, Tesla earnings report

Compilation: GaryMa Wu on Blockchain

Summary

Last week, U.S. March PPI was below expectations, and Iran’s situation briefly eased before falling back into deadlock; this week, ongoing focus on Iran, with the two-week ceasefire agreement expiring, and whether subsequent negotiations can succeed and reach an agreement, along with attention to Tesla’s earnings report and others.

Last Week’s Review

Iran’s situation briefly eased before falling back into deadlock: Although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs once attempted to open the Strait of Hormuz, it was immediately overturned and re-blocked by hardliners in the Revolutionary Guard, exposing fierce internal power struggles; meanwhile, due to the U.S. refusal to lift maritime sanctions, the temporary ceasefire agreement that was reached is on the verge of collapse, with the U.S. and Israel maintaining high-pressure military alertness, and Trump stating that the U.S. and Iran can still reach an agreement.

The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book shows that economic activity across Federal Reserve districts in the U.S. has experienced slight to moderate growth, with 8 districts expanding, 2 remaining essentially flat, and 2 declining slightly; uncertainties from Middle East conflicts are constraining corporate hiring, pricing, and capital expenditure decisions. Overall employment remains stable, with hiring mainly to fill vacancies, and companies favor temporary or contract workers; AI’s impact on overall employment is limited but has increased productivity in some scenarios and suppressed new hiring demand, with wages growing modestly. Overall prices are growing moderately.

For the week ending April 11, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were 207k, versus an expected 215k, with the previous figure revised from 219k to 218k.

China’s March M2 money supply grew at an annual rate of 8.5%, compared to an expected 8.9%, and the previous value was 9%.

The U.S. March Producer Price Index (PPI) annual rate was 4%, below market expectations of 4.6%, with the previous reading at 3.40%.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

April 20

U.S. Customs begins tariff refunds

April 21

Two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement expires

April 23

Tesla releases earnings report after U.S. stock market close (05:30)

U.S. initial unemployment claims for the week ending April 18( are ) ten thousand (20:30)

April 24

U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Index (22:00)

U.S. April one-year inflation expectations final (22:00)