In this regard, China will surpass the United States in three years; "the prediction was still conservative."

Questioning AI · How will US research budget cuts impact its innovation competitiveness?

【Text / Observer Network Zhang Jingjuan】

Since the end of World War II, the United States has long ranked first in global research and development investment, a pattern that has persisted for many years, but is now facing challenges.

According to a March 31 report by France’s political weekly Le Point, a predictive analysis conducted exclusively for the Nature Index by the “Frontiers of Science and Innovation Policy (FSIP)” project at the University of California, San Diego, shows that in the next two to three years, China may surpass the US to become the country with the highest public research investment worldwide.

OECD data indicates that from 2013 to 2023, China’s government R&D spending increased by 90%, reaching $133 billion; during the same period, the US grew by only 12%, totaling $155 billion. Additionally, China has explicitly committed to an annual growth rate of over 7% in social R&D expenditure during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, aligning with the plan’s goals and ensuring sustained R&D investment.

Nature reports that the FSIP forecast is actually conservative. It assumes US R&D spending remains steady, not accounting for the budget cuts promoted by the Trump administration, and includes factors such as the slowdown in China’s research expenditure growth around 2020.

Experts in innovation policy at Dalian University of Technology in China also believe that China’s future government R&D expenditure growth could be even higher, further accelerating the time when China overtakes the US.

On March 7, 2025, local time, in Boston, USA, people in multiple cities held rallies titled “Stand Up for Science” to protest against significant US government cuts to research funding. IC photo

Robert Conn, co-leader of the FSIP project and a research policy expert, stated that basic research is at the start of the innovation chain and is “the seedbed for innovation and breakthroughs in the next decade.” This is precisely where the US might fall behind and where disruptive changes are most likely to occur.

The report cites researchers’ views that, although the US Senate opposes the White House’s budget cuts, keeping the overall research funding for agencies like the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) relatively stable this year, their outlook for US research remains pessimistic. There are doubts about whether Congress can resist large-scale budget cuts promoted by the Trump administration in the long term.

Meanwhile, Rao Yi, a biology chair professor at Peking University who returned to China from the US in 2007, led the establishment of the Beijing Brain Science Center to empower China’s life sciences development. In a June 2025 interview with Nature, he stated that US policy swings could provide China with an opportunity to catch up, making it possible for China to surpass the US in basic scientific research within the next decade.

In fact, over the past few years, China has already surpassed the US in several research output indicators. For example, among the 145 natural and health science journals tracked by the Nature Index, current trends suggest that by the end of 2026, China’s paper contribution will be twice that of the US.

Meghan Ostertag, a researcher at the US nonprofit public policy think tank “Information Technology and Innovation Foundation” (ITIF), said that China’s increased investment in basic and applied research aims to develop core competitiveness and leadership in fields like the economy. “China realized many years ago that technology is the path to achieving this goal, while other countries are only now beginning to recognize this,” she added.

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network and may not be reproduced without permission.