Recently, I've seen a bunch of people interpret ETF capital flows, U.S. stock market risk appetite, and crypto market ups and downs all together... It's not impossible, but don't let your private key security also "move with the mood." If you really lose it, it's not just a drawdown; it's zeroing out.

My definition of "long-term" is pretty short: if you can withstand a quarter without trembling, then I consider you long-term. When your assets are small, a hardware wallet is enough—at least reduce the chance of accidental hot wallet slips; when the scale gets to the point where you can't sleep, multi-signature is more reliable, but the downside is it's troublesome, like signing during a meeting. I think social recovery is suitable for people who "frequently change devices/are afraid of losing their seed phrases," but only if your "social connections" are trustworthy. Otherwise, it's like giving the keys to your door to drinking buddies... Anyway, don't put all your eggs in one basket; security is about diversification and self-rescue.