Recently, I saw someone watching large on-chain transfers and unusual activity in exchange hot and cold wallets, shouting "Smart money is coming."

Honestly, I’d rather see which yield aggregators they’re throwing their money into afterward...
No matter how good the APY looks, it’s basically a bunch of contracts helping you arbitrage, with routing, lending pools, and even some "invisible counterparties" mixed in.
The first thing I check now isn’t the yield, but whether the strategy is interacting with which protocols, if permissions are too broad, or if there’s an entry point to change parameters at any time.
Occasionally, I’ll try a small amount, preferring to spend a bit more Gas for peace of mind, since when the market is cold, surviving is more important than running fast.