Lately, I've been observing those "coincidental transfers" on the blockchain, and the more I look, the more suspicious it seems... To put it simply, it's just that the paths aren't broken down. For example, the same funds first leave a CEX, are split into several small amounts and fed into a few new wallets, then circle through a contract, and finally return to a familiar aggregation address. It looks like random transfers between different parties, but in reality, it's the same group of people performing actions.

Now there are a bunch of testnet incentives and expected points, and everyone in the group is guessing whether the mainnet will issue tokens. I'm actually more interested in whether the "signals" are of that kind: suddenly, a batch of newly generated addresses start interacting in a patterned way, gas fees are very consistent, and they all point to the same destination. I wait for the market to gradually retrace, but on-chain, I focus on these signals. If I can explain them clearly, I won't consider them mere coincidences.