Today, some crypto friends asked me: Can altcoins really make money?

I just straightforwardly said, and this answer might be a bit harsh—
Most people’s endings in altcoins are already written: loss.

Whether you're going long or short, essentially you're competing against highly controlled funds.
Price movements often don't depend on technical analysis, but on “who's controlling the market and when they act.”
Rise and fall are often not about technical signals but about “who's in control and when they move.”
What seems like an opportunity is often just a rhythm that's been designed.

When chasing the rise, you just happen to become the bag holder;
When shorting, you just happen to encounter a pump;
Technical analysis may look convincing, but in a heavily controlled market, it's often just a reference, not the answer.

Altcoins are most likely to create the illusion of “being able to make money”:
High volatility, fast pace, many stories.
But those who can truly consistently take profits are rare as phoenix feathers.
Most people, in repeated fantasies of “almost making it,” slowly give away their funds.

The market is never short of opportunities, but it’s better at filtering people out.
Without clear rules, strict risk management, and absolute discipline in rhythm—
then altcoins, in essence, are just a high-probability game of capital transfer.