Since the beginning of 2026, the international gold market has experienced a rollercoaster-like trend. In January, gold prices once broke through the historical high of $5,600 per ounce, then sharply retreated due to energy shocks triggered by the Middle East situation, with a maximum decline of over 18%. On April 8, gold prices rebounded strongly, breaking through the $4,800 mark, and during the trading session, briefly touched $4,888. On April 17, COMEX gold futures closed at $4,849.4 per ounce. Currently, gold prices are still significantly below the early-year high, generally oscillating at high levels.

The core variable driving this intense volatility in gold prices has always centered around the inflation and interest rate re-pricing caused by the Strait of Hormuz transit situation. During Iran’s blockade of the strait, WTI crude oil once surged past $117 per barrel, pushing inflation expectations higher, forcing the market to price in continued tightening by the Federal Reserve, which pressured traditional safe-haven assets like gold. When signals of the Strait of Hormuz opening emerged, oil prices plummeted over 14% in a single day, easing inflation fears, and the market re-priced rate cut expectations. Gold and oil, previously negatively correlated, reasserted their inverse relationship, prompting a rapid rebound in gold prices. Recently, the US and Iran have initiated ceasefire negotiations, and Lebanon and Israel reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement, further reinforcing the "peace trade" logic.

Looking ahead, central bank continued gold purchases provide medium- to long-term structural support. In February, global central banks net bought a total of 19 tons of gold, with Poland’s National Bank adding 20 tons in a single month, raising Poland’s gold reserves to 570 tons. At the institutional level, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing an average monthly central bank gold purchase of about 60 tons and increased private investor buying of gold ETFs after the Fed cuts rates; JPMorgan predicts gold could rise to $5,000 in Q4 2026, with a long-term possibility of testing $6,000; Swiss private bank Union Bancaire Privée also sticks to its year-end target of $6,000. Economist Hong Hao also emphasizes that, given the weakening of US debt credit, a doubling of gold prices in the future is not a surprise.

On the risk side, whether the current "peace trade" can be sustained remains uncertain. The core disagreements between the US and Iran have yet to be resolved, and control over the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable. If negotiations break down, geopolitical conflicts could escalate again, potentially pushing oil prices higher and causing the market to revert to the old cycle of "inflation panic—interest rate tightening—gold under pressure." Additionally, changes in Fed rate cut expectations and profit-taking pressures could trigger short-term corrections at any time. Overall, the long-term logic of gold allocation remains solid, but short-term risks from geopolitical fluctuations should be carefully watched. #Gate13周年现场直击