Shouchuang Futures: Escalation of Geopolitical Tensions, Pure Benzene Futures Halt Decline and Rebound

Spot Market, CFR China Pure Benzene Price at $1,088/ton, down $57/ton from the previous trading day.
In terms of costs, Trump delivered a speech, stating that in the next two to three weeks, extremely severe strikes will be carried out against Iran. If no agreement is reached, strikes will target Iran’s power plants. The geopolitical situation may further escalate, causing international oil prices to rebound after a decline.
Regarding supply, there is a possibility of escalation in geopolitical conflicts, and key shipping routes remain under blockade. Energy supply disruptions continue, and recently, more domestic and foreign refineries have announced force majeure due to raw material shortages. Last week, domestic pure benzene load decreased by 1.8 percentage points, while Asian pure benzene load remained basically stable. Pure benzene inventories at East China ports decreased by 4k tons, and it is expected that the inventory reduction in pure benzene supply and demand from March to April will increase.
On the demand side, downstream styrene and phenol operating rates have decreased, while oxalic acid and MDI operating rates have increased; other downstream operations remain generally stable.
In summary, there is a possibility of escalation in geopolitical conflicts, key shipping routes remain under blockade, crude oil prices have rebounded after a decline, and force majeure impacts on refineries are expanding. It is expected that short-term pure benzene futures prices will fluctuate and stay relatively strong, with attention to geopolitical developments, crude oil prices, and plant operation changes. (First Capital Futures)