Global Conflict Heats Up, Gold Prices Likely to Continue Rally

Gold prices are expected to continue moving in fluctuations in the short term, but the opportunity for strengthening remains open along with rising global uncertainty.

Based on Bloomberg data, at the end of trading on Friday (17/4), spot gold prices closed at the level of US$ 4,830.34 per troy ounce, up 1.7% compared with the previous week. Meanwhile, Antam certified precious metals are at the level of Rp 2,884,000 per gram on Saturday (18/4/2026).

Currency and Commodity Observer Ibrahim Assuaibi assesses that gold prices in the short term may experience a correction.

Ibrahim estimates the first support level is at US$ 4,703 per troy ounce, with domestic precious metal prices having the potential to fall to Rp 2,838,000 per gram.

“If the pressure continues, the next support is at US$ 4,441 which can push precious metal prices down to around Rp 2,785,000 per gram,” Ibrahim said on Sunday (19/4/2026).

On the other hand, Ibrahim stated that there is still an opportunity for strengthening that remains open. The first resistance level is at US$ 4,945 per troy ounce, with precious metal prices having the potential to rise to Rp 2,898,000 per gram.

Even, if supported by fundamental sentiment, global gold prices have the potential to break through the level of US$ 5,000 and move toward US$ 5,152.

This condition could drive domestic precious metal prices to break through Rp 3,100,000 per gram in the near term.

Ibrahim also assessed that current gold price movements are strongly influenced by four main factors, namely geopolitics, the dynamics of U.S. politics, central bank policies, as well as trade wars.

From the geopolitical side, the escalation of conflict in Eastern Europe and the Middle East is considered the main driver of market volatility.

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries and Russia’s response to NATO countries are considered to increase regional tensions.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, a temporary ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel and the dynamics of Iran-U.S. relations are also attracting attention from market participants.

“If a wider ceasefire occurs, this has the potential to put downward pressure on oil prices, but on the other hand it still provides positive sentiment for gold,” Ibrahim said.

In addition, the direction of U.S. central bank policy is also a crucial factor. Uncertainty regarding interest rates, coupled with the leadership dynamics at the central bank, could put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

However, a weakening dollar does not immediately strengthen the rupiah. Domestic fiscal conditions, including a widening budget deficit, are assessed to still be able to continue pressuring the rupiah exchange rate.

From the political side, U.S. dynamics ahead of the election also affect market sentiment. President Donald Trump’s policies and tensions with monetary authorities are seen as increasing global uncertainty.

As for global trade, the potential for trade wars to heat up again in mid-year is also a factor investors need to watch out for.

With all these sentiments, Ibrahim remains optimistic that the upward trend in gold prices will continue in the medium term.

“I am still optimistic that Rp 3,500,000 per gram for precious metals will be reached,” Ibrahim said.