#Gate13周年现场直击 Bitcoin's subsequent trend analysis: $74,867 becomes the new support, how do institutions view it?

Currently, Bitcoin has officially broken below the $75,000 threshold and is in a critical period of oscillation and adjustment. The 24-hour low of $74,867.72 has become the new short-term support level, and its gains and losses will directly determine the subsequent trend. Combining the latest institutional views and market structure, the future trend mainly falls into two possibilities:
Optimistic scenario: Hold $75,000, oscillate and rebound
Some institutions believe that there is still certain buying support around $74,867. If this level can be successfully maintained, market panic will gradually ease, and Bitcoin is expected to re-stand above $75,000 and return to a range of $75,000-$78,000 for oscillation and consolidation.
If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz eases, progress is made in US-Iran negotiations, or the Federal Reserve signals a rate cut, the price may attempt to break through the $80,000 mark again.
Additionally, Iran’s move to accept Bitcoin for oil tanker tolls may also bring short-term capital inflows to Bitcoin, alleviating downward market pressure.

Pessimistic scenario: Fall below $75,000, further decline
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone and other bearish analysts believe that losing the $75,000 threshold indicates a weakening short-term trend for Bitcoin. If it cannot quickly regain this level, a larger decline may occur.
Their core logic is that the current crypto market liquidity is tightening, cryptocurrency supply is surging, and Bitcoin’s “safe haven narrative” has failed in multiple geopolitical conflicts; coupled with the high uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, the US-Iran game may escalate further. Once the $74,867 support is broken, it could trigger a larger withdrawal of funds, with prices potentially dropping rapidly toward $72,000.
Furthermore, from a technical perspective, around $72,000 is seen as an important short-term support zone. If the $74,867 support is lost, prices may quickly fall to that area, and further breakdown could lead to a longer-term oscillation phase; conversely, if the support at $74,867 is maintained and the price re-stands above $75,000, market sentiment may gradually recover, and the oscillation range will shift upward.