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This year's strategy is to continue exploiting different markets' strengths while taking care of my increasingly timid heart.
1. Cryptocurrency Market
Honestly, since 10/11, my interest in holding spot positions and trading in the crypto market has waned, mainly because I feel the risk-reward ratio isn't as good as $BTC 's when it was low, and DeFi yields have been consistently underperforming compared to CeFi subsidies.
The only three things I can still do that offer relative alpha compared to Web2 are arbitrage, wealth management, and news trading. Whether it's market prediction arbitrage, CeFi wealth subsidies, or reacting to celebrity calls & FUD news causing volatility and subsequent impacts, these are still areas where I can earn more.
Opportunity costs are: CEX savings interest rising to 3.5%, and green leaf fixed deposits increasing to 10%. If I can't beat these, I might as well just leave it alone and relax.
2. US Stock Market
A very good point is that it has a long enough history, plenty of targets, and broad-based indices are relatively stable. It offers more chances to recover than meme coins, and there are enough reference indicators to consider for trading. It’s a place where I can comfortably hold large positions and sleep peacefully.
Mainly referencing the targets recommended by @Daniel_Chang411, the largest holding is actually SPMO, mainly for peace of mind and to generate some extra cash to Web2.
Opportunity costs include major broad-based indices like VOO, Q, etc.
3. Taiwan Stock Market
Taiwan stocks are considered an emerging market, still with many opportunities for active trading and alpha. It can be said that in the first half of this bull market, crypto still outperformed Taiwan stocks, but in the mid to late stages, returns are no longer as good.
From the thread, you can see that many people’s returns from holding 0050, Zheng Er, or various active ETFs are quite impressive. Active trading needs no mention (more and more friends are managing investment accounts or relying on the stock market for their main income).
Because active ETFs are so popular, I started researching funds and found that in Taiwan’s market, actively managed funds can long-term outperform the index significantly. This is very similar to the crypto world—markets with less efficiency tend to have more alpha, and active trading can harvest more gains.
However, in the past, the crypto space might have had opportunities everywhere, but in Taiwan, many professional fund managers can consistently outperform the market.
(I personally agree with senior giant Jie’s advice: index investing is better in diverse and rich markets like the US stock market. Taiwan stocks can be left to funds or active ETFs as a complementary strategy, helping to reduce overall portfolio volatility.)
My main targets are also based on Dan’s 00981A and 00988A. For markets I’m not good at, I leave them to the professionals—being a dumb elevator rider isn’t bad either.
Opportunity costs are: 0050 (2330?!)
Finding advantageous areas in various markets to participate continuously, and letting capital roll over, is a future learning task. Being able to sleep peacefully and seriously follow stars is also important. Occasionally researching credit cards, hotel points, and airline miles is not a bad idea.