Pig prices are deep in the "winter" with the pig-to-grain ratio falling below 4:1, and the first-level warning has been triggered, with storage imminent!

On the morning of April 3rd, pork stocks collectively retreated, with Shennong Group, Xiangjia Shares, Wen’s Shares, and others falling more than 2%, and the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) dropping 1.60%.

On the news front, live pig prices continue to hit new lows. According to the latest data from SouPig.com, the nationwide average price of live pigs on April 3rd was 9.25 yuan per kilogram, again hitting a recent low. The pig-to-grain ratio has fallen to 3.81:1, entering the first-level excessive decline warning zone.

The ongoing weakness in pig prices is driven by a deep imbalance in supply and demand. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that from January to February 2026, the total slaughter volume of designated pig slaughter enterprises nationwide was 75.81 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%; among them, February’s slaughter volume was 31.77 million heads, a surge of 40.7% year-on-year, indicating that supply pressure in the first half of 2026 continues to be released.

However, consumer demand remains weak. After the Spring Festival, pork consumption quickly entered the year’s slowest season, with ample household inventories and low demand for fresh purchases, leading to about a 20% decline in post-holiday consumption. According to the latest data, in the fourth week of March, the nationwide average pig price dropped to 10.68 yuan per kilogram, down 3.3% month-on-month and down 29.8% year-on-year, with some regions’ actual transaction prices falling below 10 yuan per kilogram.

Deep losses continue to suppress industry confidence. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in February, the loss rate in pig farming reached 57.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month. Based on the current price of 9.2 yuan per kilogram, the industry’s average breeding cost is approximately 13-14 yuan per kilogram, with each pig sold resulting in a loss of about 300-400 yuan.

While the industry is in a cold winter, positive signals are also accumulating. On April 3rd, Huachao.com will initiate a new round of pork stockpiling within the year. After the pig-to-grain ratio falls below 4:1, triggering the first-level warning, the stockpiling support signals are expected to stabilize market confidence. Meanwhile, with the Qingming holiday approaching, downstream stocking demand may slightly recover, slaughterhouse operating rates have shown an opposite trend upward, and frozen pork inventories have increased significantly. Additionally, some regions have seen sporadic signs of secondary fattening, which may support short-term pig prices.

Regarding the future market, industry consensus is that the pig cycle is still in the “bottoming” stage. A researcher from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences pointed out that current capacity remains relatively high, and only when capacity reduction is fully implemented can the market fundamentally improve; if breeders continue to restock, it will delay the market reversal. However, considering that the industry has been profitable for 17 consecutive months, with sufficient industry funds, and that policy stockpiling effects are gradually emerging, supply and demand are expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year, with pig prices likely to stabilize and mildly rebound.

Industry experts believe that current pig prices are at a historic low, and the odds advantage is worth noting, but signals on the right side of the cycle bottom still need confirmation. From a capital perspective, the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) has seen net inflows of over 80 million yuan for six consecutive trading days.

As a low-cost tool for allocating the pig industry chain, the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, allowing investors to easily deploy across leading companies in feed, breeding, slaughtering, and processing throughout the entire industry chain.

Risk reminder: Funds are risky; investments should be cautious.