Right now, when I look at projects, I focus more on how they spend the treasury and whether they've met milestones after the funds are allocated, rather than obsessively watching their Twitter updates. To put it plainly, if the money has gone out but the delivery is still stuck in "in development...", I become very cautious; on the other hand, even if progress is slow, I feel more at ease if each expenditure can be linked to tangible outputs like code, audits, node operations, or community proposals.

And then there are those cases where more than half of the treasury is labeled as "ecosystem cooperation/market promotion," but who the partners are and what the outputs are is all muddled together. I usually interpret that as a sign of overpromising. Recently, people have been linking ETF capital flows, U.S. stock market risk appetite, and crypto price swings, and I also pay attention, but that’s more like weather forecasting; whether a project is actually working still comes down to on-chain evidence: where the money went, who signed off, whether multi-signature setups are independent—details that can't be fooled. We’ll talk more next time.