Recently, I saw a bunch of people interpreting large on-chain transfers and exchange hot and cold wallet movements as "smart money," as if following a script.

Honestly, this kind of information is quite brutal for options buyers: you think you've caught the right direction, but in reality, the time value is deducting from you every day.
Even if the market doesn't move, you're still losing, and after a few days, it's all gone.
On the other hand, sellers are more like collecting rent; their biggest fear is a sudden spike piercing through—what they earn is time, what they lose is the tail risk.
My own planning leans more toward "calculate what you can clearly estimate":
Buyers should treat it as buying insurance, with the cost fixed upfront;
Sellers need to think through the worst-case scenario first, or else they’re just exchanging small money for big trouble.
What I fear most isn't loss, but losing control:
If you lose, you can still review and analyze; losing control—when position size, expiration, and volatility all go haywire—your brain just shorts out, and from then on, it’s all luck.