Recently, some people have been comparing the supply curve of stablecoins to market trends, and casually attaching ETF net inflows to say "money is coming in, so prices are rising." It does look convincing, but I always feel we shouldn't rush to treat correlation as causation. An increase in stablecoins could be a reserve, or it could just be on-chain transfers, market making rotations, or even simply a different way of counting; ETF inflows are more like an off-chain sentiment thermometer, but a rise in temperature doesn't mean it will rain immediately.

My own approach is rather simple: treat it like a card in an archive, put it in a drawer first, and compare it again when similar conditions arise next time. The same goes for trading psychology—use "practice" rather than "conquer"—practice by not chasing explanations for every candlestick, practice by admitting "I don't know either," and take small positions when appropriate.

By the way, recently the "attention mining" and fan token trends in social media are heating up again... I don't oppose new narratives, but whether attention can be converted into funds is another matter, a different file that needs to be observed slowly. I don't want to be carried away by the hype. That's all for now.